Auto Inventories Reach Highest Level Since 2004
SANTA MONICA, CA — March 29, 2017— Edmunds, the leading car shopping and information platform, forecasts that 1,609,846 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in March, for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 17.2 million. This reflects a 21 percent increase in sales from February 2017, and a 2 percent increase from March 2016. Edmunds experts also forecast that auto sales in the first quarter of 2017 will total 4,076,463, which is essentially flat compared to Q1 of 2016 when 4,083,747 vehicles were sold.
"If you only look at the sales numbers, it could be tempting to say that the industry is just as strong as it was a year ago," said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds executive director of industry analysis. "But there are several areas of concern this year lurking just below the surface. Inventories have reached levels not seen in more than a decade, and incentives are rising. We’re also seeing an increase in loan duration and indications of an increase in subprime lending, both of which demonstrate sales aren’t coming as easily as they used to."
| Sales Volume |
March 2017 Forecast |
March 2016 |
February 2017 |
Change from March 2016 |
Change from February 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GM | 276,294 | 252,128 | 237,388 | 9.6% | 16.4% |
| Ford | 232,418 | 253,064 | 207,464 | -8.2% | 12.0% |
| Toyota | 222,541 | 219,842 | 174,339 | 1.2% | 27.6% |
| Fiat Chrysler | 204,805 | 199,467 | 168,326 | 2.7% | 21.7% |
| Nissan | 167,962 | 163,559 | 135,740 | 2.7% | 23.7% |
| Honda | 142,100 | 138,221 | 121,686 | 2.8% | 16.8% |
| Hyundai/Kia | 129,820 | 133,589 | 95,693 | -2.8% | 35.7% |
| VW/Audi | 47,251 | 45,306 | 38,886 | 4.3% | 21.5% |
| Industry | 1,609,846 | 1,577,507 | 1,328,391 | 2.1% | 21.2% |
Edmunds estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 13.1 million vehicles in March 2017, with fleet transactions accounting for 23.7 percent of total sales. An estimated 3.6 million used vehicles will be sold in March 2017, for a SAAR of 38.2 million (compared to 3.4 million — or a SAAR of 38.2 million — in February).
| Market Share |
March 2017 Forecast |
March 2016 |
February 2017 |
Change from March 2016 |
Change from February 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GM | 17.2% | 16.0% | 17.9% | 1.2% | -0.7% |
| Ford | 14.4% | 16.0% | 15.6% | -1.6% | -1.2% |
| Toyota | 13.8% | 13.9% | 13.1% | -0.1% | 0.7% |
| Fiat Chrysler | 12.7% | 12.6% | 12.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Nissan | 10.4% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Honda | 8.8% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 0.1% | -0.3% |
| Hyundai/Kia | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.2% | -0.4% | 0.9% |
| VW/Audi | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
More insight into recent auto industry trends can be found in the Edmunds Industry Center at https://www.edmunds.com/industry-center/.
About Edmunds
Edmunds is the leading car information and shopping platform, helping millions of visitors each month find their perfect car. With products like Edmunds Your Price, Your Lease and Used+, shoppers can buy smarter with instant, upfront prices for cars and trucks currently for sale at more than 13,000 dealer franchises across the U.S. Edmunds' in-house team of unbiased car shopping experts provide industry-leading vehicle reviews and shopping tips, as well as welcome all car-shopping questions at our Help Center, via email at help@edmunds.com and on Twitter and Facebook. Edmunds is based in Santa Monica, Calif. and has a satellite office in downtown Detroit, Mich.
