Black Friday Halo Effect Expected to Boost November Auto Sales to 17.8 million, a New 2017 High
SANTA MONICA, CA — November 22, 2017 — Edmunds, the leading car shopping and information platform, forecasts that 1,422,212 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in November for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 17.8 million. This reflects a 5.3 percent increase in sales from October 2017, and a 3.5 percent increase from November 2016.
"Usually, the first two weeks of the month are slow, especially before a holiday," Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds executive director of industry analysis said. "But this year retailers are pushing the Black Friday bargains throughout the entire month of November, and it's putting everyone in a buying mood. It also doesn't hurt that automakers are starting to really sweeten the deals to clear out lingering 2017s and end this year on a high note."
Edmunds estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 15.0 million vehicles in November 2017, with fleet transactions accounting for 15.9 percent of total sales. An estimated 2.9 million used vehicles will be sold in November 2017, for a SAAR of 38.9 million (compared to 3.2 million — or a SAAR of 38.9 million — in October).
"While 2017 may have gotten off to a sluggish start, strong sales through the back third of the year are making up for lost time," Caldwell said. "We expect full-year sales to be over 17 million for the third year in a row, and are still tracking near our forecast of 17.2 million."
| Sales Volume |
November 2017 Forecast |
November 2016 |
October 2017 |
Change from November 2016 |
Change from October 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GM | 257,081 | 252,644 | 252,813 | 1.8% | 1.7% |
| Toyota | 209,095 | 197,645 | 188,434 | 5.8% | 11.0% |
| Ford | 205,986 | 196,441 | 199,698 | 4.9% | 3.1% |
| Fiat Chrysler | 157,690 | 160,827 | 153,373 | -2.0% | 2.8% |
| Honda | 137,662 | 122,924 | 127,353 | 12.0% | 8.1% |
| Nissan | 122,808 | 115,136 | 123,012 | 6.7% | -0.2% |
| Hyundai/Kia | 104,383 | 115,011 | 97,407 | -9.2% | 7.2% |
| VW/Audi | 49,678 | 46,790 | 47,157 | 6.2% | 5.3% |
| Industry | 1,422,212 | 1,374,133 | 1,351,127 | 3.5% | 5.3% |
| Market Share |
November 2017 Forecast |
November 2016 |
October 2017 |
Change from November 2016 |
Change from October 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GM | 18.1% | 18.4% | 18.7% | -0.3% | -0.6% |
| Toyota | 14.7% | 14.4% | 13.9% | 0.3% | 0.8% |
| Ford | 14.5% | 14.3% | 14.8% | 0.2% | -0.3% |
| Fiat Chrysler | 11.1% | 11.7% | 11.4% | -0.6% | -0.3% |
| Honda | 9.7% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Nissan | 8.6% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 0.3% | -0.5% |
| Hyundai/Kia | 7.3% | 8.4% | 7.2% | -1.0% | 0.1% |
| VW/Audi | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
More insight into recent auto industry trends can be found in the Edmunds Industry Center at https://www.edmunds.com/industry-center/.
About Edmunds
Edmunds is the leading car information and shopping platform, helping millions of visitors each month find their perfect car. With products such as Edmunds Your Price, Your Lease and Used+, shoppers can buy smarter with instant, upfront prices for cars and trucks currently for sale at more than 13,000 dealer franchises across the U.S. Edmunds' in-house team of unbiased car-shopping experts provide industry-leading vehicle reviews and shopping tips, and the company also has a 20-year-old forums community of car shoppers and enthusiasts, where members can get shopping advice and learn what others are buying and leasing cars for. The company is regarded as one of America's best workplaces by Fortune and Great Place to Work. Edmunds is based in Santa Monica, California, and has a satellite office in downtown Detroit, Michigan.
