Calendar Abnormality Will Snap 27-Month Winning Streak for Auto Industry in September, Says Edmunds.com
SANTA MONICA, Calif. — September 26, 2013 — September's auto sales are expected to snap a 27-month streak of year-over-year gains dating back to June 2011, forecasts Edmunds.com, the premier resource for car shopping and automotive information. And while September's sales look shaky on the surface, a calendar anomaly likely explains the decline: Labor Day weekend sales were included in September 2012, but Labor Day sales counted toward August in 2013.
"It looks like sales took a big hit in September, but the monthly SAAR is up year over year, and the industry is still selling more cars per day than it did last year," says Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. "Many of the fundamentals that have driven strong car sales over the last year are still in place, and we can expect them to contribute to a solid final quarter to close out 2013."
Edmunds.com predicts that 1,143,968 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in September for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 15.3 million. The projected sales will be a 23.8 percent decrease from August 2013, and a 3.7 percent decrease from September 2012.
| Sales Volume | Sept-13 Forecast | Sept-12 | Aug-13 | Change from Sept 2012* | Change from Aug 2013* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GM | 195,610 | 210,245 | 275,847 | -7.0% | -29.1% |
| Ford | 183,107 | 174,454 | 220,404 | 5.0% | -16.9% |
| Toyota | 169,160 | 171,910 | 231,537 | -1.6% | -26.9% |
| Chrysler Group | 143,003 | 142,041 | 165,552 | 0.7% | -13.6% |
| Honda | 111,359 | 117,211 | 166,432 | -5.0% | -33.1% |
| Hyundai/Kia | 91,672 | 108,130 | 118,126 | -15.2% | -22.4% |
| Nissan | 83,749 | 91,907 | 120,498 | -8.9% | -30.5% |
| VW/Audi | 41,074 | 48,641 | 54,347 | -15.6% | -24.4% |
| Industry | 1,143,968 | 1,188,107 | 1,500,428 | -3.7% | -23.8% |
Edmunds.com estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 12.7 million vehicles in September, with fleet transactions accounting for 17.0 percent of total sales. An estimated 3.01 million used cars will be sold in September for a SAAR of 36.2 million (compared to 3.04 million — or a SAAR of 36.8 million — used car sales in August).
AUTOMAKER PERFORMANCE
Ford and Chrysler were the bright spots in a down month for automakers. Ford is expected to see a five percent sales increase in September, while Chrysler will see sales tick up 0.7 percent. VW/Audi and Hyundai/Kia, meanwhile, are projected to take the biggest hits in September, falling 15.6 percent and 15.2 percent, respectively, from September 2012.
| Market Share | Sept-13 Forecast | Sept-12 | Aug-13 | Change from September 2012 (Percentage pts.) | Change from August 2013(Percentage pts.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GM | 17.1% | 17.7% | 18.4% | -0.6% | -1.3% |
| Ford | 16.0% | 14.7% | 14.7% | 1.3% | 1.3% |
| Toyota | 14.8% | 14.5% | 15.4% | 0.3% | -0.6% |
| Chrysler Group | 12.5% | 12.0% | 11.0% | 0.5% | 1.5% |
| Honda | 9.7% | 9.9% | 11.1% | -0.1% | -1.4% |
| Hyundai/Kia | 8.0% | 9.1% | 7.9% | -1.1% | 0.1% |
| Nissan | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.0% | -0.4% | -0.7% |
| VW/Audi | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.6% | -0.5% | 0.0% |
More insight into recent auto industry trends can be found in Edmunds.com's Industry Center here.
About Edmunds.com
Edmunds.com is a car-shopping Web site committed to helping people find the car that meets their every need. Almost 18 million visitors use our research, shopping and buying tools every month to make an easy and informed decision on their next new or used car. Whether you're at the dealership or on the go, we're always by your side with our five-star Edmunds.com iPhone and iPad apps and our Edmunds.com Android App. Our comprehensive car reviews, shopping tips, photos, videos and feature stories offer a friendly and authentic approach to the automotive world. We're based in Santa Monica, Calif., but you can connect with us from anywhere by following @Ed munds on Twitter or by becoming a fan of Edmunds.com on Facebook.
