October New Car Sales Offer Mixed Messages to Auto Industry, Forecasts Edmunds
SANTA MONICA, CA — October 26, 2016 — Edmunds.com, the leading car information and shopping network, forecasts that 1,356,250 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in October for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 17.8 million. This will be a 5.2 percent decrease from September 2016, and a 6.8 percent decrease from October 2015.
Edmunds.com projects that 14,464,835 new cars and trucks will be sold this year in the U.S. through the end of October, down 0.2 percent from the 14,500,744 sales recorded through the first 10 months of 2015's record-breaking year.
"On the surface, it might look like a slow month for sales, but in fact the industry's performance was much stronger than the raw numbers suggest," says Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. "Even with month-to-month and year-to-year sales decreases, a 17.8 million SAAR in October would tie for the highest monthly sales rate of 2016. And considering that there are no popular weekend sales events in October, automakers and dealers can feel encouraged by this month's performance as they head into what they hope will be a busy holiday season."
| Sales Volume |
October 2016 Forecast |
October 2015 |
September 2016 |
Change from October 2015 |
Change from September 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GM | 246,512 | 262,993 | 249,795 | -6.3% | -1.3% |
| Toyota | 189,995 | 204,045 | 197,260 | -6.9% | -3.7% |
| Ford | 189,970 | 213,105 | 203,444 | -10.9% | -6.6% |
| Fiat Chrysler | 178,245 | 199,385 | 192,883 | -10.6% | -7.6% |
| Honda | 125,162 | 131,651 | 133,655 | -4.9% | -6.4% |
| Nissan | 113,008 | 116,047 | 127,797 | -2.6% | -11.6% |
| Hyundai/Kia | 107,959 | 110,049 | 115,830 | -1.9% | -6.8% |
| VW/Audi | 39,645 | 48,087 | 41,729 | -17.6% | -5.0% |
| Industry | 1,356,250 | 1,455,562 | 1,430,273 | -6.8% | -5.2% |
Edmunds estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 14.8 million vehicles in October 2016, with fleet transactions accounting for 16.7 percent of total sales. An estimated 3.2 million used cars will be sold in October 2016, for a SAAR of 38.7 million (compared to 3.2 million — or a SAAR of 38.7 million — used car sales in September).
| Market Share | October 2016 Forecast | October 2015 | September 2016 | Change from October 2015 | Change from September 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GM | 18.2% | 18.1% | 17.5% | 0.1% | 0.7% |
| Toyota | 14.0% | 14.0% | 13.8% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| Ford | 14.0% | 14.6% | 14.2% | -0.6% | -0.2% |
| Fiat Chrysler | 13.1% | 13.7% | 13.5% | -0.6% | -0.3% |
| Honda | 9.2% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 0.2% | -0.1% |
| Nissan | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 0.4% | -0.6% |
| Hyundai/Kia | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 0.4% | -0.1% |
| VW/Audi | 2.9% | 3.3% | 2.9% | -0.4% | 0.0% |
More insight into recent auto industry trends can be found in Edmunds.com's Industry Center at http://www.edmunds.com/industry-center/.
About Edmunds.com
Car shopping destination Edmunds.com serves millions of visitors each month. With Edmunds Price Promise®, shoppers can buy smarter with instant, upfront prices for cars and trucks currently for sale at 10,000 dealer franchises across the U.S. Shoppers can browse not only dealer inventory, but also vehicle reviews, shopping tips, photos, videos and feature stories on both Edmunds' wired site and on its acclaimed mobile apps. Regarded as one of the best places to work in Southern California, Edmunds.com was also named one of "The World's Top 10 Most Innovative Companies of 2015 in Automotive" by Fast Company. Edmunds welcomes all car-shopping questions at our Help Center and help@edmunds.com and on Twitter and Facebook. The company is based in Santa Monica, Calif. and has a satellite office in downtown Detroit, Mich., but you can find Edmunds from anywhere on YouTube, Pinterest, LinkedIn, Instagram, Google+and Flipboard.
