SANTA MONICA, CA — June 27, 2019 — The car shopping experts at Edmunds forecast that 1,501,158 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in June for an estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 17.2 million. This reflects a 5.4% decrease in sales from May 2019, and a 3.3% decrease from June 2018. 2019 sales through June are expected to be down by 2.5% year over year.
"June auto sales aren't hitting the same levels that they did last year, but they aren't dropping off a cliff either," said Jeremy Acevedo, Edmunds' manager of industry analysis. "The strength of the economy has kept retail demand in decent shape despite the higher interest rates, rising vehicle costs and other headwinds that have been placing pressure on the new vehicle market so far this year, but we're expecting to see the industry continue to settle into a slower sales pace as we head into the rest of 2019."
Although Edmunds analysts predict a SAAR above 17 million for the third time of the year in June, they caution that these numbers might be slightly propped up by automakers falling back into old habits when faced with mounting inventory levels.
"Old vehicles are stacking up on dealer lots, and automakers are relying on fleet sales a little more than they probably should to clear them out," said Acevedo.
Edmunds estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 13.4 million vehicles in June 2019, with fleet transactions accounting for 20.3% of total sales. An estimated 3.4 million used vehicles will be sold in June 2019, for a SAAR of 39.4 million (compared to 3.5 million — or a SAAR of 39.6 million — in May).
| Sales Volume |
June 2019 Forecast |
June 2018 |
May 2019 |
Change from June 2018 |
Change from May 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GM* | 243,283 | 255,882 | 260,000 | -4.9% | -6.4% |
| Ford* | 215,245 | 229,537 | 232,000 | -6.2% | -7.2% |
| Fiat Chrysler | 201,323 | 202,264 | 218,702 | -0.5% | -7.9% |
| Toyota | 200,314 | 209,601 | 222,174 | -4.4% | -9.8% |
| Honda | 136,693 | 146,563 | 145,532 | -6.7% | -6.1% |
| Nissan | 130,264 | 145,096 | 131,983 | -10.2% | -1.3% |
| Hyundai/Kia | 123,573 | 120,623 | 128,496 | 2.4% | -3.8% |
| VW/Audi | 46,845 | 48,412 | 54,594 | -3.2% | -14.2% |
| Tesla | 25,925 | - | - | - | - |
| Industry | 1,501,158 | 1,551,655 | 1,586,757 | -3.3% | -5.4% |
*GM sales totals for June 2018 are estimated, GM & Ford sales totals for May 2019 are estimated
**NOTE: June 2019 had 26 selling days, June 2018 had 27 and May 2019 had 26.
Edmunds estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 13.8 million vehicles in May 2019, with fleet transactions accounting for 18.9% of total sales. An estimated 3.4 million used vehicles will be sold in May 2019, for a SAAR of 39.2 million (compared to 3.5 million — or a SAAR of 39.1 million — in April).
| Market Share |
June 2019 Forecast |
June 2018 |
May 2019 |
Change from June 2018 |
Change from May 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GM* | 16.2% | 16.5% | 16.4% | -0.3% | -0.2% |
| Ford* | 14.3% | 14.8% | 14.6% | -0.5% | -0.3% |
| Fiat Chrysler | 13.4% | 13.0% | 13.8% | 0.4% | -0.4% |
| Toyota | 13.3% | 13.5% | 14.0% | -0.2% | -0.7% |
| Honda | 9.1% | 9.4% | 9.2% | -0.3% | -0.1% |
| Nissan | 8.7% | 9.4% | 8.3% | -0.7% | 0.4% |
| Hyundai/Kia | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| VW/Audi | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 0.0% | -0.3% |
| Tesla | 1.7% | - | - | - | - |
More insight into recent auto industry trends can be found in the Edmunds Industry Center athttps://www.edmunds.com/industry/insights.html.
About Edmunds
Edmunds guides car shoppers online from research to purchase. With in-depth reviews of every new vehicle, shopping tips from an in-house team of experts, plus a wealth of consumer and automotive market insights, Edmunds helps millions of shoppers each month select, price and buy a car with confidence. Regarded as one of America's best workplaces by Fortune and Great Place to Work, Edmunds is based in Santa Monica, California, and has a satellite office in Detroit, Michigan. Follow us on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram.
